On 5 Aug 2026 the federal government announced it will lift the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme cap from 100 kW to 1 MW, effective 1 Oct 2026. Systems in that band become eligible to create small-scale technology certificates, paid upfront, instead of large-scale generation certificates earned over decades. The government puts the saving at around 20 per cent of installed cost: about $68,000 off a 250 kW system, about $136,000 off a 500 kW system.
If you have a commercial solar project in that range sitting on someone’s desk, you have a decision to make in the next eight weeks and no settled answer to make it with. Install in September and you get nothing. Install in October and you might get six figures, if the regulations land on time.
The offer
I will run a pre-feasibility on your site and tell you whether to wait.
Half a day of work, a fixed fee, one page back. It answers three things: whether your project falls inside the new band, what waiting costs you in forgone generation, and what the deferral risk is if the regulations slip. If the answer is “install now”, I will say that, and you will have spent a small amount of money to stop wasting a larger amount of time.
I have spent years in solar, including running a solar business, and I hold a Master of Sustainability Science. I model the commercial case and the abatement case in the same spreadsheet, because for most owners now they are the same question.
Find out more at theclockworkcloud.com.au or email me at alex@theclockworkcloud.com.au.
The six questions that decide it
1. How big is the system, actually?
Below 100 kW, nothing has changed and there is no reason to wait. Above 1 MW, nothing has changed either. The decision only exists in between. Note the threshold is total onsite capacity, so an existing 90 kW array on the same site counts toward it.
2. When does the system get installed, not signed?
Eligibility attaches to installation, not contract date. A contract signed in August with an install in November is on the right side of the line. The projects at risk are the ones already mid-build in September, and the ones whose connection approval is going to land at exactly the wrong time.
3. What does three months of waiting cost you?
Take the government’s own worked example. A 250 kW system generating around 345 MWh a year saves about $50,000 a year in electricity, so roughly $4,200 a month. Wait three months to capture $68,000 and you have spent $12,500 to earn $68,000. On those numbers waiting wins, and it is not close. Run it on your own tariff before you believe it: a site with a heavily discounted contract rate and no demand charge exposure will produce a different answer.
4. What happens if the regulations slip?
This is the risk the 20 per cent headline does not price. The Clean Energy Regulator has said the change is subject to regulations being in place, and that the government is still considering additional design, installation and compliance requirements for mid-scale systems. The date is an intention. Every month of delay costs you another $4,200 on a 250 kW site, and you cannot claim it back.
5. Where is your network connection up to?
For most commercial rooftops the binding constraint is the distribution network’s export limit, not the capital. Minister Bowen said he would ask the Australian Energy Market Commission to speed up approvals for commercial and industrial solar. That is an intention too, and no mechanism has been announced. If your connection application has not been lodged, the incentive is not your critical path.
6. Are you about to size the system to the cap instead of to the load?
A 1 MW ceiling with money attached to it will pull projects toward 999 kW. If your load does not support it and your export limit does not clear it, you have bought a larger array to capture a subsidy and lost more on spill than you gained on certificates. Size to the site. The cap is a boundary, not a target.
What is confirmed, and what is not
Confirmed by the Clean Energy Regulator on 5 Aug 2026: systems between 100 kW and 1 MW will be eligible to create STCs, intended to apply to systems installed from 1 Oct 2026, subject to regulations. Existing arrangements below 100 kW are unchanged. Existing accredited large-scale systems stay under the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target.
Not yet confirmed: the regulations themselves, and the additional design, installation and compliance requirements the government says it is still considering. The Smart Energy Council reports that eligible systems will hold a five-year deeming rate through to 31 Dec 2030 rather than stepping down annually, and trade press has repeated it. That would matter a great deal to anyone planning a 2028 install. It has not come from the Regulator or the minister’s office, so treat it as expected rather than banked.
Between now and October there is a quiet season coming for installers and a queue forming behind it. The roof does not care. It has been sitting there in the sun the whole time, doing nothing, and it will keep doing nothing until someone runs the numbers.